WASHINGTON—The U.S. pork industry is expected to ship 1.4 billion pounds of pork products to foreign destinations in the fourth quarter of this year, an increase of more than 22% over the same period in 2010, according to USDA’s Economic Research Services’ Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Sales are expected to be strong to Asia, where demand for U.S. pork is expected to increase year-over-year due to a combination of factors, including continued low-exchange values of the U.S. dollar
and government efforts to moderate consumer pork price increases brought about, in part, by recent outbreaks of various swine diseases. With larger fourth-quarter exports, total exports for 2011 are expected to reach slightly more than 5.1 billion pounds, an increase of 21% over exports in 2010.
Export growth next year is expected to tail-off as Asian pork production increases, and consumer food price inflation abates. Total U.S. pork exports in 2012 are expected to be about the same as this year, 5.1 billion pounds.
Pork products available to the U.S. market are likely to grow year-over-year next year for the first time since 2009. High domestic availability will push down hog prices by about 1.6%. Further declines in hog prices are likely to be checked by lower 2012 production in poultry (down 1.8%, year-over-year) and beef (down 4.6%, year-over-year). Substitution effects from higher retail prices for poultry and beef prices should keep 2012 retail pork prices around $3.40 per pound.
