MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL—Global food demand could double by 2050, which will significantly increase carbon dioxide and nitrogen levels in the environment and lead to the extinction of numerous species agricultural practices change, according to a new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Researchers at the University of Minnesota said the problems can be avoided if the high-yielding technologies of rich nations are adapted to work in poor nations, and if all nations use nitrogen fertilizers more efficiently.
“Agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions could double by 2050 if current trends in global food production continue," they said. “Global agriculture already accounts for one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions." Much of these emissions come from land clearing, which also threatens species with extinction.
According to the study, if poor nations continue current practices, they will clear a land area larger than the United States (2.5 billion acres) by 2050; however, if richer nations help poorer nations improve yields to achievable levels, that could be reduced to half a billion acres.
The researchers suggested adopting nitrogen-efficient “intensive" farming that can meet future global food demand with much lower environmental impacts than the “extensive" farming practiced by many poor nations, which clear land to produce more food. In 2005, crop yields for the wealthiest nations were more than 300% higher than yields for the poorest nations.
“Strategically intensifying crop production in developing and least-developed nations would reduce the overall environmental harm caused by food production, as well as provide a more equitable food supply across the globe," they said.
In June 2011, agriculture ministers from the G-20 countries on June 23 agreed to an action plan aimed at stabilizing food prices and increasing food production that calls for establishing an international information sharing scheme to ensure transparency in agricultural markets.
Global food prices reached a record high in December 2010, outpacing 2008 levels that prompted riots in 61 countries, according to a new “Crop Prospects and Food Situation" report from the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). FAO estimated that global food production will have to increase at least 70% by 2050 as the world population expands to 9.1 billion from about 6.8 billion last year.
