WASHINGTON—U.S. consumers can expect to see food prices continue to rise in the next few months thanks to this summer’s extreme mixture of heat, drought and flooding that has taken on corn, soybean and wheat production. Futures prices soared for those commodities after the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Crop Production report on Aug. 11.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 8% from last year. Yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from last year. Planted area to soybeans is estimated at 75 million acres, down fractionally from the previous NASS estimate.
All wheat production, at 2.08 billion bushels, is down 1% from the July forecast and down 6% from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 45.2 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month but down 1.2 bushels from 2010. Specifically, double-digit decreases are expected in Durum and other spring wheat production from last year due to flooding and excessively wet conditions earlier in the season.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 57.1 million bushels, down 10% from July and down 47% from 2010. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.4 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from last month but unchanged from last year. Acres planted to Durum wheat are down nearly 18% from the previous estimate in June, a change based on farmer re-interviews during mid- to late-July.
Other spring wheat is forecast at 522 million bushels, down 5% from last month and down 15% from last year. The forecasted yield is 42.5 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 3.6 bushels from 2010. Acres planted to other spring wheat are down 7% from the estimate in the June Acreage report, another result of the producer re-interviews.
The report did contain some good news. Corn production is forecast at 12.9 billion bushels, up 4% from last year. Corn yields are expected to average 153.0 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushel from 2010, and the fourth highest yield on record. Acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 92.3 million acres, unchanged from NASS’s June estimate in the Acreage report
