WASHINGTON—The Economic Research Service (ERS) has released its “Food Price Outlook, 2009,” which indicates that consumers are paying significantly less for groceries this year. In 2009, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food is projected to increase 1.5% to 2.5%. The modest increase is attributed to lower commodity and energy costs coupled with weaker domestic and global economies.
The agency forecasts that food-at-home prices will see an increase of 0.5% to 1.5%, while food-away-from-home prices will rise 3.0% to 4.0%. Pressure on retail food prices has subsided, resulting in low-to-moderate food price inflation in 2009 after seeing an all-food CPI increase of 5.5% between 2007 and 2008, the highest annual increase since 1990. The at-home prices were led by fats and oils (up 13.8%) and cereals and bakery products (up 10.2%), increased 6.4%, while food-away-from-home prices rose 4.4% in 2008.
The latest data in is for November, where the CPI for all food decreased 0.1% from October to November 2009, and is now 0.7% below the November 2008 level due to declines in meat, dairy and produce. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will issue the December 2009 CPI on Jan. 15, 2010.