CHICAGO—The number of Americans living with diabetes will nearly double in the next 25 years, according to a new report published in Diabetes Care (2009 Dec;32(12):2225-9). In 2009, 23.7 million suffer from the disease, but that number will rise to 44.1 million in 2034, the study reported. During the same period, spending on diabetes will almost triple, rising from $113 billion to $336 billion, even if there is no increase in the prevalence of obesity. The number of those with diabetes covered by Medicare will rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, the researchers predict. Medicare spending on diabetes will jump from $45 billion to $171 billion.
They predict the obesity distribution in the population without diabetes will remain stable over time with around 65 percent of the population being overweight or obese.
To make the prediction, researchers constructed a Markov model simulating individuals' movement across different body mass index (BMI) categories, the incidence of diabetes and screening, and the natural history of diabetes and its complications during the next 25 years. The study population they used was 24- to 85-year-old patients characterized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and National Health Interview Survey.
