You often hear words like “front-row seats” and “crystal balls” when the topic turns to predicting flavor trends. But, in truth, drawing a bead on coming taste attractions means stepping outside the lab and logging some serious legwork.
Trend databases, industry publications and the popular press are time-tested resources, says Kimberly Carson, director, beverage solutions group, Sensient Flavors LLC, Indianapolis, “but I would say that the fun part of what we do is actually getting out and trend-spotting—getting into some of these niche categories, asking what we can pull from them that could become mainstream."
Kim Holman, director of marketing, Wixon, Inc., St. Francis, WI, cites frequent travel, restaurant visits and contact with early adopters as key sources of intelligence, and also notes the importance of identifying and following “core influencers in the industry.” Give those influencers a new-media platform, such as a blog, and they rev the engines for emerging flavor trends.
“Food blogs have certainly made niche ingredients more approachable to interested consumers,” says Erin O’Donnell, marketing manager, David Michael & Co., Philadelphia. “There are literally hundreds—no, thousands—of blogs dedicated to education about and experimentation with new flavors.” The sites incubate trends before they hatch en masse. “While a small group of consumers are already using hibiscus, blood orange, kaffir lime leaf and black garlic in their recipes,” she says, “there are plenty of others who still haven’t even heard of açaí.”
Paulette Kerner, director of marketing, Virginia Dare, Brooklyn, NY, watches “what’s going on at the local snow cone stand or the local scoop shop” for trends that may work their way up to national confectionery or beverage brands. Her own neighborhood ice cream and candy store has been a reliable source for years, she adds, “because they’re more willing to reach out, and can stretch and change before you get into mass-merchandise manufacturers.”
Those waiting for trends to trickle down set their sights on high-profile restaurants. “Historically, fine dining paves the way,” says Mia Arcieri, marketing manager, FONA International Inc., Geneva, IL. “As restaurant owners become aware of trends, you start to see more interesting—and affordable—flavor combinations showing up in fast-casual restaurants.”
When the trickle reaches retail, it hits the snack and beverage categories first, notes Holman. “We have always considered these categories to be the ‘playgrounds’ of innovation,” she says. “If the flavor profile is accepted here, then it moves on to others.”
Thinking outside the taste buds
Where do trendy flavors come from? Why these flavors or ingredients, and not others?
Often, the answer is only tangentially related to hedonics. “It’s multifaceted when you look at why these trends are emerging,” says Arcieri. “It’s more about understanding why consumers purchase, and what draws them in. Likely, it’s an aspiration to be a good mom, a healthier individual, or to experience something beyond the consumer’s community bubble.” Consumers want "a product that says something unique about them," she says. "Why is it that pomegranate made such a statement in the food world? It had buzz!”
Holman has seen aspirational identities shape the personal-care sector with products like “lip gloss for the surfer girl, or deodorant for the sportsman.” She believes the strategy is ripe for foods, too. “I think we are going to see flavors go a little niche and start to target psychographics,” based on what you do, who you and what you represent, she says. Thus, the green consumer will lean to natural and organic flavors, while the indie-rock skateboarder might look for “xtreme” profiles that chime with his urban tribe.
Jessica Jones-Dille, industry trend manager, Wild Flavors Inc., Erlanger, KY, sees Gen Y as “a huge flavor driver. They are as accepting of new ideas as Generation X, but they want them faster. They are also very quality- and brand-focused, which will shape the food market for the next decade.”
Baby boomers, 28% of the population, will shake things up, too. “They are going to change what it means to age in America,” Holman says. “They want quality and quantity of life, and they want to look good, too. So give them açaí or pomegranate, which is high in antioxidants, or give them cinnamon, which is known to help the heart.”