David Michael also subscribes to a global new products database to track flavors, ingredients and product claims, as well as a menu-tracking database that provides access to restaurant menus for the top chains and independents across the food industry. The company conducts an Innovation Roadshow every October that first started in 1999 as an education format for the sales force and grew into a flavor tasting event that now includes customers. “Collectively, these tools help us to not only predict new flavor trends, but also to validate our theories,” says O’Donnell.
The goal is to “hit the flavor target faster,” says O’Donnell. “We want to give our clients the right flavor for their application the first time, every time.”
Then there’s the approach taken by WILD Flavors, which views trends through alternative lenses. “We tend to look at beverage flavor trends from a geographic perspective,” says Jones-Dille. “Beverages are much more customizable than foods, so we find that new flavors come from health trends and from new flavor discoveries around the world.” In contrast, she says, foods are often customizable to a person’s individual preferences, so flavor trends for foods are much more demographic. “Often, popular new flavors in foods come from the fine-dining sector, and chef innovation,” she adds.
Trickle up, trickle down
A five-stage process, dubbed Trend Map®, that outlines how trends work their way through the food industry has been devised by Center for Culinary Development, San Francisco, according to Kara Nielsen, a trendologist at the company:
1. Fine dining and ethnic restaurants often set the pace, bringing interesting and international flavors into focus for an American palate that is growing in sophistication.
2. Gourmet consumer magazines, such as Bon Appétit and Food & Wine, and gourmet specialty stores—as well as trade magazines with a flavor focus, whether culinary or food science, or both—reflect the fine-dining trends.
3. Chain restaurants, particularly upper-scale casual venues, such as The Cheesecake Factory, pick up the trends.
4. Then the trends hit women’s magazines, such as Better Homes & Gardens and Cooking Light.
5. Finally, the trends hit the mainstream. Products and new flavors are found in quick-service restaurants (QSRs), as well as in consumer packaged goods (CPGs) in grocers and convenience stores.
The fast-casual and QSRs have more muscle and flexibility for introducing LTOs, but many restaurants won’t put a new flavor on the menu until they know it’s definitely on-trend, according to Nielsen.
Trends don’t always travel through all five stages, just as they are not all things to all people. “Fit” is at the forefront of final decision making. Pomegranate fruit and flavor is “in,” but it doesn’t mean a barbecue restaurant or fast-food chain should offer a sandwich with that flavor.
Food companies watch what the competition is doing, but they also follow the restaurant scene. “Many times, this is where consumers will first get a chance to sample something new. Once a new taste or flavor reaches critical mass in the restaurant trade, consumers may be inclined to try to duplicate the flavor or meal at home,” says Vierhile. The trial pulls foodservice manufacturers into the game to meet consumer demand for what’s new.
David Michael tracks flavor trends early, watching them develop in foodservice and niche categories such as nutritional, premium and so forth. “We also watch for media attention, as this may be how product developers, and even consumers, are alerted to a new flavor,” says O’Donnell.
Fad or trend?
Some trends run hot and cold. The test of time is really the only way to evaluate whether a flavor has staying power, or whether it’s a fad, according to Vierhile. “I tend to get nervous whenever I see a huge spike in an area over a very short period of time—that tends to say fad instead of trend.” He cautions that some of the new superfruits could fall into the fad camp, though the better-tasting ones—like pomegranate—will likely prosper over the long haul.
“Fads spike high and fast, and while they may enter into mainstream territory, they usually crash and burn,” says Nielsen. Trends “cook” long and slow and appeal to a wide variety of people for a variety of reasons. “Trends move more slowly and have deeper cultural roots and social significance,” she says. Trends may also offer meaningful benefits over the long-term, such as a lifestyle change (whatever that means to the consumer) beyond something like low-fat or a fad diet.
The WILD Flavors company motto, “We Create Great Taste,” notes Jones-Dille, “is all about building a great-tasting product and integrating the best flavor possible—this includes scouting the latest flavor trends and influences on the market.”
In many cases, according to Jones-Dille, flavor trend predictions can be a guessing game. WILD Flavors employs a system to research the consumer acceptability of market trends. “One of the ways we do this,” she says, “is to review the consumer need states surrounding a product, and identify the emotional and functional needs associated with end products.”
Flavor trends balance familiarity, relevancy and acceptability. Using tangerine as a flavor in a beverage or savory-sweet application may be perfectly acceptable, because people relate to the color and flavor of the more-familiar orange. Along those lines, at the IFT Food Expo in 2005, David Michael introduced an açaí-raspberry-flavored beverage. “At the time, the majority of attendees had never heard of açaí, and those that had were surprised to see it at the show,” says O’Donnell. Today, the superfruit is a rapidly growing flavor trend.
Some superfruits are simply delicious, while others are less palatable and need a little help. For those that are less tasty, and because many are still so unfamiliar to consumers, David Michael recommends blending them with complementary flavors such strawberry, cranberry, blueberry and so on, for trial (and error) purposes.
“The American public likes new things, but the novelty has to be counterbalanced with some sort of familiarity,” affirms Nielsen.
Like arms raised in a rollercoaster, riding the wave of a flavor idea can be great fun, putting a new twist, spin or turn on a product- or menu-development initiative. Once the wave catches wind and transforms into a trend, it can be sure to spread in all directions—up, down and all across the food industry.
Deb North, freelance food writer, marketing communications consultant, and graduate of LeCordon Bleu College of Culinary Arts, can be e-mailed at
debubrat@bellsouth.net
.
Snack Products: Demand for Flavor Plus Health
Though there is increased demand for healthier food options, consumers remain unwilling to sacrifice taste for nutrition. Today’s consumers want to have it all—flavor and indulgence.
In a recent survey by Datamonitor, New York, 80% of consumers said they want food manufacturers to enhance the flavor of healthy products. The global survey of 5,000 consumers showed that consumers are more in control of their health choices and better educated about health issues. They also are more aware of good and bad food options. Despite this increased awareness, more than one-third of consumers look for indulgent snacks more regularly than in previous years.
Healthy products remain a small percentage of overall indulgent snack releases, according to Datamonitor. However, as indicated by original consumer research conducted by the Hazelnut Council, Seattle, in 2006, 95% of consumers believe a food can be both healthy and indulgent.
This demand for better-tasting and better-for-you products, and the increased interest in indulgent snacks, creates unique opportunities for snack-food manufacturers. New products or the reformulation of current healthy products to improve flavor quality could be the solution.
Nuts, known for their indulgent and healthy attributes, give consumers the flavor and nutritional profile they demand. In fact, the Hazelnut Council’s 2006 consumer research shows 75% of consumers are eating nuts because of their healthy fat profile.
By adding nuts, such as hazelnuts, to food products, manufacturers increase the content of heart-healthy mono- and polyunsaturated fats, fiber, and antioxidants, while also improving the flavor and texture.
—Simon Bowers, Marketing Communications, Hazelnut Council
Spotting Menu Trends
In early 2008, Menu Insights from Mintel, Chicago, identified eight trends poised to transform American menus in 2008. These should influence product-development strategies across the board―retail as well as foodservice.
• Superspices. Research suggests that “superspices” like cumin, ginger, cinnamon and turmeric may boast more antioxidant power and medicinal benefits than their superfruit cousins.
• Miniature foods. Restaurants hope that small portions, big flavors and low prices will lure hungry snackers. Mini burgers and wraps caught on late in 2007, but look for restaurants to add more “mini” favorite foods this year.
• Fine fast food. Celebrity chefs like Bobby Flay, Rick Bayless and Wolfgang Puck are branching out with convenient, fast-casual restaurants that promise high-quality food, fine cooking and bold flavors—all on a 30-minute lunch break.
• More whole grains. With the health benefits of whole grains more widely known, specialty whole grains, such as kamut, quinoa, barley and millet, will grow on the American restaurant menu.
• Ingredient provenance. Food safety and ecological issues have made headlines, causing many Americans to rethink where their food comes from. As concerns over ingredient origins rise, restaurants have responded with more local ingredients, more natural and organic items, and more sourcing information on the menu.
• Bulking up the bar. Watch as restaurants flex their bar muscles. By enhancing menus with more-flavorful cocktails and savory appetizers, restaurants want diners to linger, lounge and just have fun in the bar.
• Classic cocktails. Look for a rebirth of classic cocktails such as the sidecar, Manhattan, Bellini and Tom Collins.
• Mocktails. Ice-cold lemonade with strawberry purée, fresh ginger, crushed mint leaves and—no alcohol? Alcohol-free mocktails are a sophisticated alternative for non-drinkers and drinkers alike.
—The Editors